How Graffica is modelling the impact of a major upgrade on Thameslink
The Thameslink Programme (TLP) is a major upgrade to the existing north/south route through central London, with a core requirement to operate up to 24 trains per hour through the central region of the route between St Pancras and Blackfriars.
Graffica was chosen by Network Rail to work alongside the University of Birmingham Railway Engineering department to use the Graffica HERMES rail simulator to evaluate the likely impact on service punctuality, reliability and stability when operating services at this increased frequency. HERMES was chosen for its adaptable architecture, fidelity and flexibility.
The scenario required the modelling of a very large and complex region, including most of the Southern network, and the lines through central London to Bedford, Peterborough and Cambridge.
The study had a very tough deadline to deliver analysis within four months of project inception. Graffica was able to convert an existing Network Rail model into HERMES format and create and execute a range of scenarios under a Monte Carlo scheme to evaluate the required punctuality statistics.
In numerous scenarios, services were subjected to random delays, based on measured statistical distributions, to show the effect on downstream punctuality when the services present into a busy network.